Assessing Nigeria's Democratic system in the build up to the 2023 general election

Abdullahi M A

 Since 1999, Nigerians have gone to the polls every four years to elect new leaders. Olusegun Obasanjo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), a former military head of state who had handed over power to a civilian administration in the 70s won the first election, & he successfully ran for re-election in 2003.

  His successor(also of the PDP) Mallam Umar Musa Yar'adua was a former governor of Katsina state. He won the 2007 presidential elections and had grand plans for taking the country forward but unfortunately, he died 2 years into his first term and was replaced by his deputy Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan a former governor of Bayelsa state. 

 After completing Yar'adua's first term, Goodluck contested and won the 2011 elections. 

  Goodlucks first term was marred by security challenges with dozens of bomb blasts and terrorist attacks by the armed group known as Boko Haram. Four years later In 2015, and for the first time since the transition to civilian rule, The ruling PDP lost to a group of opposition parties who had merged to form the All Progressives Congress (APC). 

 The winner of that election & candidate for the APC Muhammadu Buhari like Obasanjo before him was also a former military ruler in the mid 80s. Buhari had contested and lost in 2003, 2007 and 2011 but because of the security situation under Goodluck Jonathan, Nigerians in their droves voted for the "Change" that Buhari and the APC had promised. 

Buhari got another 4 years in the 2019 general elections although Nigerians were not as enthusiastic as they were in 2015 after the Buhari administration failed to deliver on literally all their campaign promises. 

 As we gear up for another general election in a few months, Nigerians are still very divided like they were 23 or so years ago. 

Nigeria's deeply rooted division is nothing new. with a population of over 200 million people, more than 250 ethnic groups, & two major religions, Nigeria is as diverse as any other. In many a developed country, political loyalties and support are based on ideology and merit but in Nigeria, religious and ethnic loyalties come first. More often than not, the average Nigerian is more likely to vote for a candidate because of their tribe or religion rather than their qualifications or suitability for the task at hand. 

  The 2023 general election has the potential to be different though. For the first time in 20+ years of democracy, it's not a two horse race. Up until the last general election in 2019, it was always a battle between the ruling party and a main opposition party. Other candidates would appear, but most would just be there to occupy space or boost their popularity. 

This time around, a serious third & even fourth force have emerged. 

The third force is Peter Obi. A former governor of Anambra state, Peter Obi is in his early 60s which compared to the candidate of the APC & PDP is quite youthful. He's very well educated with an idea of how to make Nigeria better and his records and achievements in Anambra are testament to that. 

In the 2019 general elections, he was the running mate of Atiku Abubakar of the PDP when they lost & Buhari got re-elected. When it became clear that Atiku would get the PDPs nomination again for the 2023 elections, Obi decamped to the Labour Party to contest for the top job himself. 

He has surprised everyone with the campaign he's having, even himself. Nigerians from different walks, religions, tribes have all become #Obidient. The failings of the current administration, a lack of credible candidates from both PDP and APC, & an increase in youthful participation in politics has helped his cause. most of his supporters are young Nigerians disenfranchised by the kind of leadership Nigeria has gotten in recent years and they believe Peter Obi can do better. 

   The fourth force is the NNPP's Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Much like Obi, Kwankwaso is young, well educated with a sparkling CV. 

 A native & former governor of Kano state in northern Nigeria, Kwankwaso has a large following in Kano and even across the country for his achievements, charisma & philanthropy. During his time as governor of Kano, Kwankwaso was one of the best in the country. He made a huge impact on every sector from the economy, to infrastructure, education and many more. His contribution to the development of Kano state is there for all to see. Being the only Hausa man on the ballot will also boost his chances as the Hausas of nothern Nigeria are the majority tribe in the country.

      The current Buhari administration has disappointed Nigerians over and over again. The Economy, Security, Infrastructure and other sectors are worse than when he first came into power in 2015. Nigerians are demanding Change, something he promised but never delivered in 2015. Ironically.

 Bola Tinubu, his chosen successor on the APC ticket is a former governor of Lagos State and a seasoned politician. before going into politics though, Tinubu is rumored to have made his fortune through the smuggling and selling of drugs like cocaine in the US. Even as a politician, he's been accused of corruption severally. He turned Lagos State into his own personal domain becoming somewhat of a king maker and deciding who gets elected and who doesn't. 

 His past, education, health and origin are all shady. There are unverified reports of him being uneducated and failing to submit his Primary & secondary school results reaffirms those claims. He claims to be 70 when it's very obvious he's at least 80 years old. reports from credible sources have claimed he's 86-87 and looking at him, it's likelier. 

His health is another issue. videos of shaking hands, mid speech seizures, sleeping at every function among others scream 'rest & round the clock medical attention' 

  Former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar   is the flag bearer of the PDP. Atiku who was President Obasanjo's running mate in '99 and '03 has run albeit unsuccessfully for the top job in every election since he ended his second term as VP. To pursue his ambition, Atiku has gone from one party to another while spending a fortune to no avail. He, alongside Tinubu & Buhari were among the founders of APC & collaborated to defeat Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. When Buhari announced he would seek re-election in '19, Atiku went back to the PDP and lost again with Peter Obi as his running mate.

 In 8 years as VP, Atiku had more scandals than achievements, and was widely accused of corruption. Even his former boss President Obasanjo accused him of embezzlement and money laundering. In the US, he faced corruption charges until they were cleared in the buildup to the 2019 elections. We can rest assured that the first order of business if he wins next year would be getting a return on the billions he has invested in the presidency over the years.

Having said all that, we pray that the candidate with the best interests of the Nigerian populace at heart wins come 2023.

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