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Review Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment by Daniel Kahneman Olivier Sibony Cass R Sunstein

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From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). 

Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly 

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Book ID Asin: 0316451398
Book Title: Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
Book Author: Daniel Kahneman,Olivier Sibony,Cass R. Sunstein
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Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Daniel Kahneman,Olivier Sibony,Cass R. Sunstein Book Review

Name: Wally Bock
Rating: 5.0 out of 5 stars
Title: .0 out of 5 stars A five-star book that may not be for you
Date: Reviewed in the United States on December 14, 2021
Review: Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment is an excellent book. But if you’re a reader of business books, Noise may not be the book for you. Most business books get right to practical applications of the author/s key ideas. This book does not. It’s an academic book with business applications. The big question is whether this book is worth your time as a business reader.

The first two thirds of the book set up the later chapters. The later chapters cover many specific techniques you can use to reduce noise and improve judgement and prediction. Don't jump right to them, though.  The early part of the book lays the necessary groundwork for you to understand why the techniques work. Later I’ll identify chapters with particular value for business readers.

Noise is about two things that affect our judgment. Bias is systematic deviation. Noise is random scatter. We need to understand both to improve judgment. Alas, most of the time noise hardly gets any consideration while bias is the star of the show. The authors wrote this book to “redress the balance.”

They say that the key theme of the book is: “wherever there is judgment there is noise --and more of it than you think.”

The book is divided into six parts. Part one is about the difference between noise and bias. Part two is about human judgment. Part three is about predictive judgment. Part four describes the psychological causes of noise. Part five explores several practical issues. This is the part that would be of greatest interest to most business readers. Part six wraps up the book with techniques for measuring and overcoming noise.

There’s a lot of actionable value for businesspeople, but as I said earlier, you need to read the first two thirds of the book to get to it. Here are some things that may make the book worth your time.

This is an excellent overview of structured decision processes and why they often improve judgment. There are also specific chapters you may find interesting and helpful.

Chapter 23 is “Defining the Scale in Performance Ratings.” Some research indicates that performance only has a 20 percent impact on the final performance evaluation. This chapter includes techniques you can use to reduce both bias and noise and make your evaluations fairer and more consistent.

Chapter 24 is “Structure in Hiring.” Hiring almost always involves at least one interview. And interviewers make subjective judgments about the person they interview. We know that humans aren’t very good at sussing out whether a particular person will succeed or fail on the job. We know that different interviewers often have wildly varying assessments of the same candidate. This chapter will give you some tools for improving the results of your interviews.

Chapter 25 is “The Mediating Assessments Protocol.” This has special value for you if you are a maker of deals and subject to what has been called “deal heat.” The mediating assessment protocol is a tool for overcoming deal heat and making better decisions.

Chapter 28 is “Rules or Standards?” I never thought about the difference between these two until I read this chapter. You learn how rules and standards affect the amount of judgment in particular situations.

In a Nutshell

Noise is an excellent book about improving our judgment by reducing scattered results (noise) and reducing inconsistencies in the decision process. The first two thirds of the book establish the definitions and principles for dealing with noise. The final third of the book has several chapters with practical applications of the principles.

Name: Gary Moreau, Author
Rating: 3.0 out of 5 stars
Title: .0 out of 5 stars Without a nod to context and power there is just noise
Date: Reviewed in the United States on June 6, 2021
Review: We all know that people, including the experts, are poor at predicting the future and that every judgment is potentially full of error and bias. This book attempts to explain why and what can be done about it.

“Noise is the unwanted variability of judgments, and there is too much of it.” I personally think “static” would be the better descriptor but terminology is clearly an author’s prerogative. And there is no question that there is a lot of error in the judicial system, medical diagnosis, insurance underwriting, the education system, the recruitment, evaluation, and advancement of employees, forensic science, and just about everything to do with business and political decision-making.

But to think anyone can wrap all of that up with one neat bow and in doing so provide a potential roadmap to address them all is attempting to map the intricacies of the universe on the back of a cocktail napkin. You inevitably end up with so much clinical jargon (e.g., decision hygiene, mediating assessments protocol) as to make it all, well, outrageously noisy—and unnecessarily, if not painfully, long.

These three individuals are clearly brilliant and well schooled on the topic. Their academic peers may well give the book rave reviews. That’s okay. That’s the way judgment works.

As I am not a peer, however, I took exception with some of the assumptions. Judges are notoriously inconsistent in setting prison sentences. But setting a prison sentence is not the same as diagnosing breast cancer. One is clearly a judgment. The other seems better characterized as analytical.

Perhaps more importantly, setting prison sentences and medical diagnosis are largely judgments made by individuals. When judgments are made within an organization, however, as in deciding who gets promoted in a corporation, the individual is dwarfed by the organizational power structure that the authors never fully address. It is often power, not noise, which compromises the judgment of most organizations.

I believe, to be fair, that they would argue that power and noise are interrelated. Fair enough. It is the power, however, that defines the culture, the processes, and the judgments of most organizations. And if the power structure is faulty, which it often is, the reduction of noise won’t matter much and probably won’t get addressed anyway.

There is, to be fair, a lot of good common sense here. It is true that “correlation does not imply causation” and the “wisdom of crowds”, probabilistically anyway, is pretty well established. And I could not agree more that “even the most enthusiastic proponents of AI agree that algorithms are not, and will not soon be, a universal substitute for human judgment.”

In the last third of the book or so the authors acknowledge that some believe that more noise (i.e. fewer rules, guidelines, etc.), not less, would lead to more equitable and fair outcomes in many social systems (e.g., assigning prison sentences). They acknowledge that it ultimately depends on the process but they generally come down on the side of less noise.

If you put the issue in a broader human context, however, I don’t believe the case is convincing. If we lived in a society defined by collective identity and a sense of mutual obligation I would probably agree. But we don’t and in that sense the idea of reducing noise may be counter-intuitively untimely.

Sometimes the reduction of noise through rules or standards can actually increase inequity and reduce fairness. The US Tax Code is a case in point. The noise has, over decades, been reduced to a dull hum. We have the lengthiest and most complex tax code on the planet. But is it fairer as a result?

No. By reducing the noise we have given a distinct advantage to those with the wealth to hire armies of lawyers, accountants, and lobbyists to find and exploit the noise that’s left behind because one byproduct of rules and guidelines is loopholes.

The procedures for qualifying to vote and certifying elections are another example. More rules may provide further protection against fraud. But there is a very good chance it will also prohibit people with the legitimate right to vote from doing so or even compromising the very ideal of democracy. Which is the worse outcome?

Most social systems, in other words, exist in a larger context. If there exists a strong sense of collective social identity and mutual obligation reducing the noise in most social systems might make sense. That, however, is not the world we currently live in. And until that context changes, more rules and guidelines are as likely to result in less equity rather than more.