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Review The Shift The Next Evolution in Baseball Thinking by Russell Carleton Jeff Passan

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With its three-hour-long contests, 162-game seasons, and countless measurable variables, baseball is a sport which lends itself to self-reflection and obsessive analysis. It's a thinking game. It's also a shifting game. Nowhere is this more evident than in the statistical revolution which has swept through the pastime in recent years, bringing metrics like WAR, OPS, and BABIP into front offices and living rooms alike. So what's on the horizon for a game that is constantly evolving? Positioned at the crossroads of sabermetrics and cognitive science, The Shift alters the trajectory of both traditional and analytics-based baseball thought. With a

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Book ID Asin: B079J5M49Y
Book Title: The Shift: The Next Evolution in Baseball Thinking
Book Author: Russell Carleton,Jeff Passan
Book Format and Price:
Book Format Name: Kindle
Book Format Price: $9.00
Book Format Name: Audiobook
Book Format Price: $0.00
Book Format Name: Paperback
Book Format Price: $17.63
Book Format Name: AudioCD
Book Format Price: $19.99
Book Price: $9.00
Book Category: Kindle Store, Kindle eBooks, Sports & Outdoors and unknown
Book Rating: 105 ratings

The Shift: The Next Evolution in Baseball Thinking by Russell Carleton,Jeff Passan Book Review

Name: honest Abe
Rating: 5.0 out of 5 stars
Title: Don't give up on this gem because of the early chapter
Date: Reviewed in the United States on September 14, 2018
Review: First let me say that I hated the first 11% of my kindle book. I almost gave up. DON'T! This is an extremely enjoyable book by a very likeable author whose love for the game is palpable in his stories and writing. He is also a humorist and a psychologist to boot. His purpose is to shed some light on the SHIFT or evolution in baseball thinking which has consumed the sport in the last decade. The Shift does not refer only to the explosion of the defensive shifts in the game, but rather the movement away from the human element to a more data driven game. As a psychologist, the author tries to reconcile them for the game and for the reader's perspective of how and why the game is played today as opposed to twenty years ago.(Think "The Trouble with the Curve" meets "Moneyball".
The concepts in the book are not all novel or ahead of the curve, but they are important for the fan to understand. Carleton does a very nice job explaining WAR and emergent value, expected value, and how General managers go about trying to add value to a team so that every possible advantage is gained. He offers proof in the form of statistics for his theories. t's not an easy read and it flies in the face of us old guys' beliefs in certain ideas(steals, bunts, when to run on a sac fly),but it is very thoughtfully written. I am amazed at how granular the sabermetricians have become. They analyze every pitch, every outcome, every out, every hit, and come up with statistical proof to show why bunting a man over to second does not improve run producing percentages. Everything is examined for "what is the expected value of a play or non act". The same is true of a steal. At what point is stealing second base worthwhile in increasing the chances of a run? For example, based on 2017 statistics, unless the runner has better than a 73.94 % of making it safely, it isn't worth trying. When should a runner tag on a sac fly from third base with one out? It turns out, he should go practically every time. One thing I thought was cool was the discussion of whether the KC third base coach should have sent Alex Gordon in the final game of the 2014 WS when there were two outs and Sal perez was up. He makes a persuasive argument based on Perez' OBP during the season and the playoffs that there was a better chance of an errant throw or missed tag than the chance that Perez would drive him home. There is a lot here to digest, including leverage situations for relievers rather than just the bottom of the 9th(a concept used by Francona with Andrew Miller), and the expected extra runs attributable to catchers for good pitch framing based on stats of pitches. Carleton also makes a statistically driven case that defensive shifts may actually do more harm than good. Two other things I found fascinating. First, he produces evidence to show that there is little if no correlation between giving a pitcher three days rest rather than four with a result of fewer injuries. Second, he did a computer simulated season of games to judge whether traditional notions of batting orders made a real difference. Surprise! Only 1.5 runs scored was the difference in the year. The use of bull-penning and high leverage usage of relievers, and the value added by player versatility are discussed, and he debunks some myths including the myth of momentum as an influence on games. So, this is a very helpful, funny and well explained(except for Cox regression) book about the evolution in thinking and the myths still viable in the game. Great job

Name: clemente_in_right
Rating: 5.0 out of 5 stars
Title: Great stuff matched by great writing
Date: Reviewed in the United States on April 15, 2018
Review: Russell Carleton has done a nice job of breaking down various aspects of recent trends in baseball and highlights areas that have yet to be exploited (like sending runners home from 3rd more frequently than what occurs now in sac fly situations). I was particular interested in his deep analysis of a trend every baseball watcher is familiar with - the infield shift. He also did a nice job of examining success in the amateur draft. Yes, there is math involved. But Carleton does a nice job of explaining the how and why behind it so that it isn't too overwhelming for the unfamiliar. Carleton also tackles the parts of the games that listeners often hear commentators discuss, like luck and momentum, and his thoughts are well worth reading.

Carleton's insight is augmented by a thoroughly enjoyable writing style. He blends a good mix of humor and personal anecdotes that makes the book easy to dive into for long stretches.

Recommended for all baseball fans, especially those interested in advanced stats.

Full disclosure: Carleton and I were loosely associated 10 plus years ago as we both wrote for Evan Brunell's Most Valuable Network blogsite. He wrote for Statistically Speaking, while I wrote about the Pirates. I don't recall us having any interaction as my time was mostly spent whining about the state of my favorite team and, since I believe I was the oldest long term writer on the site, I occasionally gave out (somewhat) unsolicited relationship advice on the internal message board. The site was a very fun place to be in the early days of blogs.

Name: Patrick M. Monaghan
Rating: 3.0 out of 5 stars
Title: Not the book I anticipated
Date: Reviewed in the United States on February 24, 2019
Review: I was really looking forward to purchasing this book as soon as I had the funds to do so. I was initially pretty happy and while the book was by no means bad, I found it underwhelming and a little disappointing. The book was well written and there are several good points, but here are the things that I took away from fully enjoying the book:

**The book felt 1/3 or better autobiography. Not all of the personal stories were bad, but had I known that going in, I probably don't place this very high on my wishlist.

**I don't recall reading anything that seemed particularly profound, new, or that I felt really adequately expressed the next evolution of baseball. Again, there as good and interesting information; just not the level of insight I anticipated.

**Several sections seemed to revolve around the idea that "baseball players and personnel are people too." Looking beyond the stat line is important, though it felt a little forced at times.

My review is probably more negative than my three star rating, though I tried to note the things that might have swayed my own decision to purchase had I known this going in. It could be this would be what you are actually looking for whether it worked as well for me or not.