We all have our own ideas on what the future of bitcoin holds and how high the price will eventually go. For people who are bullish about bitcoin, usually their price predictions can become quite high, with the sky being the actual limit. There are a lot of factors that come into play when determining this question. You need to take into account the strength of the dollar and other currencies, the world situation, inflation, if bitcoin has been accepted as legal tender of other countries, if it has surpassed gold as a store of value, and finally if it has been the world reserve currency. The list goes on and on, but I'm sure you are getting the point. Each day that bitcoin survives, it becomes stronger, and those price predictions become much more of a reality. I am about as bullish as a person can be for the future of bitcoin. So if you are anything like me; it become more a question of not the price going up, but will these four-year cycles continue on? The four-year cycle being centered around the bitcoin halving, which cuts the bitcoin mining reward in half approximately every four years.
Throughout bitcoin's short history, the price has been directly correlated to this event. About seven months after each halving, the price of bitcoin begins to shoot up rapidly, thus beginning the bull run. This usually lasts for around 18 months will extreme volatility towards the end up this time and a large price blow off the top. And then prices drop drastically. Sometimes more than 80%. And this last for another 18 months, until the next bitcoin halving takes place. This cycle has repeated and repeated all throughout bitcoin's history. But will this always be the case?
My answer for this is no, and it is coming to an end very soon. In fact, I would even make the claim that I believe this will be the last bitcoin cycle. Now don't take this the wrong way, I do believe there will still be drastic price drops in the future, similar to what we have been experiencing the last few months. But just like this time period, they will continue to get bought up quickly and the "bear markets" will become much shorter. The price will of course be affected by the bitcoin halving, as the new BTC being minted will be cut in half, thus causing a supply shock. But the cycle will not only go up after the halving takes place.
Let me explain this thought more.
At this point in time, a large majority of people in the world know very little about bitcoin, let alone invest in it. Then, even fewer people know what the bitcoin halving is, and how important it is. All they know is that the price of bitcoin is either going up or going down. This won't always be the case. But before we get to that point, corporations, hedge funds, and countries are now getting into the bitcoin game. These groups definitely know about the halving and how finite bitcoin actually is. They also can see how the value of the US dollar is quickly depreciating and may not be the currency of the future. These groups are going to game the system. If you know that the bitcoin halving takes place every four years, and the price goes up drastically because of the supply shock that it causes; why would you then wait to buy until after the halving?
These organizations will begin buying before the halving in anticipation of that halving taking place. So while technically the price will be going up as a result of the halving. It will just now be happening before and after the halving takes place. Thus, changing the cycles forever. Unfortunately for the regular people; there will be hardships that occur. With bitcoin, the everyday person had a real opportunity to buy a once-in-a-lifetime asset, and do it before the big guys. The sad thing is, and I see this everyday when I try to get the people around me or at my job interested in bitcoin or investing. They just aren't interested. They don't know what money really is, how they are losing it each year even when they think they are saving it. And they definitely aren't aware of the direction that the world is heading towards. These people will become aware of the bitcoin halving down the line, but by then their golden opportunity will be gone.
So now that the four-year cycles will be gone, what will happen to the price of bitcoin, and how will it look? Like I mentioned above, there will always be drops, but generally the price will look a lot like the Stock-to-Flow chart from PlanB. Meaning that it will look like an upwards diagonal line from the left to the right.
A lot has to happen for this to become a reality. Bitcoin will need to swallow up gold's value, and many other assets. If this dream is to become a reality, we could see bitcoin's price reach $1 million by 2024 and that is just the start of this mania. If the dollar's value continues to decrease, what does the price of that even mean? By that time, things will begin to be priced in bitcoin or sats.
Always remember that the name of the game is to get as much bitcoin as you possibly can. I don't think people are ready for the tsunami that is heading towards everyone. It is crazy to think, but bitcoin at $40,000, is still extremely cheap.
How about you? Do you think this is the last bitcoin 4-year cycle? Do you have enough bitcoin yet?
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